As a conservative, I can’t help but admire Newt Gingrich’s performance in the Republican debates and lust for the opportunity to see him debate Barack Obama head to head. But then I have a nagging doubt that if Newt were to become the nominee, which Newt will show up?

On any given Monday, Wednesday, Friday or Sunday, Newt Gingrich will be a rock solid conservative that we can all get behind. However, on any give Tuesday, we will find him getting cozy on the couch with Nancy Pelosi to talk about fighting global warming. On any given Thursday, he will endorse a liberal Republican Congressional candidate like Dede Scozzafava in New York’s 23rd district, against a conservative Doug Hoffman and an even more liberal Democrat. On any given Saturday, he will attack capitalism as being predatory and his supporters will back it up with a half hour documentary that the web site “Fact Checker” gives four Pinocchios.

A number of Republicans who worked with Gingrich when he was Speaker of the House, including Tom Coburn who garners a 95% conservative rating, say they will have a very hard time getting behind a Gingrich candidacy. What do they know that we don’t?

If someone could guarantee that the Newt that is on the debate stage, is the Newt that we will remain through election day, I could see myself supporting him. However, if he were to win the nomination and then have a Tuesday, Thursday, or Saturday moment, we could see Obama coast to a reelection victory and I cannot imagine American surviving another four years of Obama. I want to back the most conservative candidate that can get elected, and that is my dilemma.

That’s my opinion; I’d like to know yours. Please comment below.

Tomorrow is the New York State Republican Primary.  We go to the polls to choose our candidates who will go up against the Democrats in November.  This is an important election and an important turning point for our country.  New York is a deep blue state and the Republican party seems to be part of the problem rather than part of the solution.  The candidates that they often put forth are more likely to make Republicans throw up their hands and stay home on election day than turn out and vote. 

We have seen the hope and change of the Obama administration and it scares the hell out of many Americans.  The change we need is to turn out the “go along to get along” crowd and put in true reformers.  At Tea Party meetings I encounter more and more New York conservatives who say they are tired of hiding their beliefs.  They used to keep their political views to themselves because they feared repercussions from their employers, their customers, their schools, but they are tired of it.  They tell me they are coming out of the closet.

We need to embrace this view.  It may mean we lose some races like the special election in New York’s 23^rd Congressional district, where the Republican bosses picked Dede Scozzafava, who after falling behind Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate, in the polls, dropped out and endorsed the Democrat.  It is time to stand and be counted.  Liberty’s Life Line makes the following endorsements.

New York’s First Congressional District

In New York’s First Congressional District, Liberty’s Life Line endorses Randy Altschuler. Randy came out early and often to challenge incumbent Congressman Tim Bishop and Speaker Nancy Pelosi on their reckless spending.  He has articulated a conservative view on the major issues that we face and he is a free market conservative.  Christopher Cox has a number of positions that are similar to Randy Altschuler, but instead of focusing on explaining how he would govern and why he is the better candidate, he chose the low road to attack his fellow Republicans in a mudslinging campaign that angered numerous voters.  Mr. Cox also promotes a protectionist point of view,  rather than a free market point of view and he seems confused about what the job of Congressman entails.  In one of his ads he talks about putting Suffolk County taxpayers first.  If he were running for County Executive, that would be fine, but a Congressman cannot put his constituents ahead of any other taxpayers.  Federal tax laws should affect all Americans equally, and where they don’t they should be changed so that they do. 

George Demos’ campaign is verging on the desperate.  His positions on his web site are little more than platitudes and he has chosen to make the centerpiece of his campaign social issues that are not what the majority of the voters are concerned about right now.  We are heading toward a debt crisis, and Mr. Demos oddly chose to run on an issue that will let the incumbent change the subject from the economy.

New York Senate versus Kirsten Gillibrand

Liberty’s Life Line endorses David Malpass for United States Senate for the seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand.  Mr. Malpass has more experience at the federal level having worked in the Reagan administration.  He also understands that New York has, for years, paid more money in taxes to Washington than New York has gotten back in government money.  Yet every year Sentators Schumer and Gillibrand vote for more spending and more programs that New Yorkers will fund and others will reap the rewards.  Mr. Malpass understands that the answer is not to fight for a bigger share of the pie for New York, but to shrink the pie and eliminate unnecessary programs and spending.  Mr. Blakeman has relied more on imagery in his campaign and attacks on Mr. Malpass rather than focusing on how he would govern and therefore be the best choice for the Senate. Mr. DioGuardi seems to advocate the same old ways of doing business.  For example, he advocates “Paygo” which was the tool Democrats invented to force tax increases as new programs were added to the economy and which the Wall Street Journal described as “kind of budget gimmick that gives gimmickry a bad name.”  We need straight forward shrinking of government not better tools to monitor how badly it is being done.

New York Senate versus Chuck Schumer

Liberty’s Life Line endorses Jay Townsend for United States Senator for the seat currently held by Chuck Schumer.  Both Mr. Townsend and Mr. Gary Berntsen have strong national security views, are for tax reduction and reduced spending.  Mr. Townsend’s positions seem to be more thoroughly developed.  For example, he is for the repeal of ObamaCare and in its place he supports some common sense methods to reduce the cost of delivering health care without spending $1 trillion.  Mr. Berntsen doesn’t address health care on his website.  Mr. Townsend also has pledged to ban all earmarks, which are basically the way incumbents bribe their constituents to send them back to Washington.  Replacing Chuck Schumer will be a tough challenge so we need to put forth the best candidate we can.

New York State Governor

Liberty’s Life Line endorses Rick Lazio for governor.  Although Carl Paladino has captured the anti-incumbent energy and had energized people to come out and support him, Rick Lazio has a concrete plan on how he would attack the issues.  New York State government is so broken, Life Line could see that an outsider like Mr. Paladino could just be hamstrung and stalled by a legislature that is vehemently opposed to him.  Think Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, who came in on a re-call election to turn things around but ended up being the one turned around.  Mr. Paladino, as a CEO, is coming from an environment where he calls the shots, in Albany he will have to work with the legislature to get things done and it will take him a little while to figure out what buttons to push.  Mr. Lazio has legislative experience as a Congressman, and has thought through his plan in sufficient detail that it might actually work.  Mr. Paladino has moved the debate which is a major victory and if he loses the primary Life Line hopes he will support Mr. Lazio.  Likewise, if he should prevail, we all must get behind him to defeat Mr. Cuomo in November.

Conservatives, do not lose heart.  Tea Party people, stand firm.  Like many great turning points in history, they often involve an historic battle that is lost.  The Alamo. Remember the Maine. Dunkirk.  Pearl Harbor.  9/11.  What they do instead is rally the troops, get them fired up and motivated.

The Battle

In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the aloofness of the professional pols came to a head.  It was the epitome of a recent Rasmussen poll that said 74% of Republicans said their elected leaders were out of touch with the base.  On the Democratic side, the opposite was the case were most Democrats felt their elected leaders held similar views to their own.  So what happened in the special election in New York’s 23rd district?

Republican party bosses chose Dede Scozzafava to defend a seat that has been Republican since the Civil War.   Ms. Scozzafava is pro-abortion, pro-”reform in workers ability to organize”, pro-gay marriage,  pro-Obama stimulus package, and endorsed by the Working Families Party, an ACORN front group.  That was more than conservatives could stand.  Doug Hoffman threw his hat in the ring, conservatives from around the country rallied to him, and Scozzafava eventually dropped out of the race and threw her support behind…the Democrat!!

So the race was between a Democrat and a Conservative, with the Republican candidate a footnote.  The Democrat prevailed by about 5% and picked up a seat for Nancy Pelosi.

The Talking Heads

The liberals started rubbing their hands and crowing over the Republican party self-destructing.  I see it differently.

In a Gallup poll, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 20% described themselves as liberals.  That leaves 40% in the middle.  The prevailing wisdom among the Republican Party leadership is that we need to run “moderates” and have a big tent to win elections.  I say, do the math. 

If you need 50% to win the election, and many times you don’t, then run a conservative candidate.  You will start off with the 40% that call themselves conservative, and then you only need to win 25% of the middle to put you over the top.  (40% in the middle x 25% = 10%; 40% conservative base plus this 10% = 50%). 

Liberals have the tougher job.  Starting out with only a base of 20% self-described liberals, they need to win 3/4 of the middle to get to 50% and win.  It’s even tougher for them because they typically have to go hard left to win the primary and then try to swim upstream to get back in the middle without anyone noticing.

Putting Elections on a Platter

So what has been the strategy of the Republican Party leadership?  Run moderates, because “we can’t win elections with the conservative base alone.”  That’s true but neither can the Democrats win with just their liberal base and as I just proved, theirs is the tougher job.  But when you run moderates, here’s what happens.  A good portion of the conservative base stays home, disgusted.  So from starting with 40%, you maybe now have a 20% base.  You just let the Democrats pull even.  Now you have to win not 25% of the middle but half of the middle.  Let’s say the middle is a continuum from almost conservative to almost liberal.  If Republicans keep their base, then they can just go after the middle group that is “almost” conservative.  If they alienate their base then they have to get every vote in the middle that is the least bit conservative and maybe some liberals.  On the flip side, if they keep their base by running conservative candidates, that forces the Democrat to get all the liberals, all moderates, and some who lean conservative, to capture 3/4 of the middle.  After going hard left to get nominated, that is an almost impossible task.

Don’t Let Obama Fool You

Obama’s election had an historical element to it that we are not likely to see again.  He is an incredibly good speaker, that is, until you realize that is all he is.  Put up a moderate like McCain, and it was no contest.  The only time it became interesting was when McCain picked Palin, which got the base energized.  But the McCain campaign completely mismanaged bringing Palin on board, and the moment was lost.

Remember the 23rd!

So, conservatives have to rally and the Republican leadership has to pay attention.  As Margaret Thatcher used to say, “Don’t go wobbly.”  Start putting conservatives on the field and turn the tide of the battle. 

The next battle is Florida where Charlie Crist…better update his resume, there is a new kid in town, named Marco Rubio and he’s a conservative.

In his Sunday column Frank Rich described Republican candidate for New York’s 23rd Congressional District a “mainstream conservative by New York standards.”  So what did Dede Scozzafava do after falling so far behind the Democratic and Conservative candidates that she decided to drop out?  Well, naturally, she endorsed the Democrat!  Why would a conservative endorse the Conservative, rather than the Democrat?  Because, perhaps, she was a RINO?  That is, a Republican In Name Only.

Party On

What frightens the statists more than anything else is that the Tea Party people know how to walk and chew gum at the same time.  They know that protesting is one thing, but it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t bring about results.  What was demonstrated in New York’s 23rd District is that just like the Minutemen back in Revolutionary times, conservatives could rally, join the fight, and win.  The lock the left had on the media is gone.  The statists no longer control the information game, putting their spin on the news.  If this were 20 years ago, Doug Hoffman the Conservative candidate in the race, would have been, at best, a footnote in history.  His story would not have gotten off the local newspapers in that rural part of New York State.  In today’s world, he quickly got on television, talk radio, and the blogs, got his message out and the rest is history.

What’s the Lesson?

Despite Frank Rich’s hand wringing and Dede Scozzafava’s backing the Democratic candidate, how has the race changed?  From neck and neck between the Conservative Hoffman and the Democrat Owens, recent polls show Hoffman surging into the lead with one poll showing a 5% lead and another showing a 17% lead.  The lesson is that if you give Republicans good conservative candidates, they will vote for them.  If you instead go for weak, moderates, then the Republican base stays home, and the independents choose between the professional statist (Democrat) and the amateur statist (moderate Republican) and as I like to say…in a contest like that why wouldn’t you pick the pro over the amateur?

There is panic in the ranks of the left this Halloween.  In today’s Times, Frank Rich, does his level best to whistle past the graveyard, but the fear is clear.  He astonishingly titles his piece, “The G.O.P. Stalinists Invade Upstate New York.”  I guess they feel the Hitler moniker has lost its zest, so the leftists resort to calling those on the right, Stalinists.  Their disorientation could not be more palpable.

What has them in such a tizzy?  It centers around the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.  The local Republican party bosses chose a candidate, Dede Scozzafava, who would never be mistaken as a conservative, although Mr. Rich actually called her, “a mainstream conservative by New York standards.”  That’s like saying David Letterman is chaste by liberal standards, as if these things are measured on a relative scale.  But that’s the way liberals and statists think.  If your neighbor is more promiscuous than you, then you must be celebate.  If you want to make Nancy Pelosi a moderate, move her to Cuba.

Ground Shift

What has Mr. Rich and his cohorts nervously clearing their throats, is that the uprising against the entrenched statists, led by the Tea Parties, actually delivered results.   Ms. Scozzafava is pro-abortion, pro-same-sex marriage, pro-Obama stimulus package, pro-card check to make it easier to form a union without a secret ballot election, and supported by ACORN.  This is what Mr. Rich calls a conservative, “by New York standards.”  What sticks in his craw is that the election was a win-win, for him and his friends.  Elect the Republican or the Democrat and it doesn’t matter much, they both hold the same basic views.  Then along came Doug Hoffman.

Doug Hoffman threw his hat in the ring on the Conservative Party line.  By this Saturday, with support pouring in all across the country from true conservatives, Hoffman was in a dead heat with the conservative and the Republican Scozzafava was fading fast.  So she decided to suspend her campaign, and Mr. Rich and company hit the panic button.

So how does Mr. Rich frame his argument?  Well he starts by saying Hoffman has no grasp of local issues.  Uh, the position is United States Congressman, not city alderman.  He well understands the issues at the national level and how the policies of the Obama Administration are bankrupting the country.  Those policies will negatively affect the people in his district.  But leave it to Mr. Rich to scoff at Hoffman, because he doesn’t know how much pork barrel spending the district needs. A true patriotic Congressman, like John Murtha, finds a way to build an airport in the district that nobody uses and hands the bill to people in other districts like, well, New York’s 23rd.  He’s going to Washington to fight those who are bleeding the Treasury dry.  So Mr. Rich fights that by calling Fort Drum, home to the U.S. Army’s 10th Mountain Division, a “pork-dependent military base.”  Hmmm…the last time I read my copy of the Constitution, it specifically required providing for the national defense.  I couldn’t find in my copy where it required building airports no one needed so that John Murtha could get re-elected in perpetuity.  I understand it is a fine distinction, but I would have thought someone employed by the New York Times would be able to make it.

Frank Rich’s Happy Talk

Mr. Rich oddly calls the developments in New York as good news.  With a recent Gallup Poll, showing that for every self-described liberal there are two self-described conservatives, Mr. Rich says the ideologues that brought about the events in New York’s 23rd, may then start picking off other conservatives and destroy the party.  Does he mean conservatives like Arlen Specter, Lincoln Chaffee, Olympia Snow, Susan Collins, Charlie Crist, oh my!  With 73% of GOP voters saying that Congressional Republicans have lost touch with their base, this is not good news for Mr. Rich and company.  What he believes is that a small cabal of conservatives will put unelectable candidates on the ballot that voters will reject and the Democrats will gleefully reap the rewards.  In reality, the GOP leadership has for too long put weak candidates on the ballot that Democrats easily beat because the Republican base cannot get excited about them.  McCain is a war hero and worthy of our admiration, but just look at his signature legislation:  McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy.  He was not a conservative on many fronts. 

Nixon was a conservative, Ford was not.  Reagan was a conservative, Bush 41 was not and  Dole was not.  George W. started more conservative than not, but then drifted to become a big spender.  McCain was not a conservative.  Do you see a pattern here?  Conservative Republicans win.

With Obama’s approval rating going down in a virtual straight line, Mr. Rich confidently proclaims that the only politician Obama has to fear is Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan.  By all means, Mr. Rich, you keep telling your pals that.