As I check the current price of GM stock this morning, $31 per share, and I contemplate how in the world it is going to reach the $53 per share price Americans need to fully recover their “investment” in the automaker, a recent news story lays it on the line. It’s not going to happen. The Obama administration has announced that it is demanding that auto companies double the mileage that their fleets get, to 56.2 miles per gallon, by 2025.
General Motors
The government decides that we have no choice but to bail out the automobile companies. Before taking office Obama supported the bailout. In my humble opinion, I believed the auto companies should have turned to the bankruptcy courts. Now, President Obama is clearing the way for states such as California to significantly increase mileage standards for cars.
So let’s examine this. The big three are forced to sell a lot of small cars at no profit or a loss for each profitable vehicle like a Cadillac they sell so that their fleet average fuel economy will meet CAFE standards. The result of this government meddling is that the big three are unprofitable, so they have little or no money to invest in the next generation of cars. Because they are on the brink of insolvency, the government steps in and bails them out with billions of taxpayer dollars. Even with that, it may not be enough and the auto companies may require more. So what does our government do now? It opens the door for states to tighten the noose around the necks of the auto companies by increasing the mileage standards.
So now the auto firms will have to sell even more small cars at a minimum profit or loss for each profitable Cadillac they sell, in a down economy no less, practically guaranteeing that the auto companies will come back to the government asking for even more bailout money.
The inexperience display goes on in Washington. How long can we stand it?
It’s hard to read the news about the auto industry and not clench your fists at the outrage. GM and to a lesser extent, Ford and Chrysler, are asking the American taxpayer to bail them out, but what is their position?
- The unions say they are not going to negotiate anything to help the situation
- The CEO of GM says that they are not filing for Chapter 11 and not preparing to file, despite that they may run out of cash by the end of December. Not even as a contingency, Mr. Wagoner?
- Wagoner refused to consider resigning, even if it would help them get aid
- GM’s board is supportive of Wagoner
This company negotiated an agreement with its union that pays them almost full pay if they are laid off. Let me get this straight. You lay people off, as painful as that may be, to cut costs. GM negotiates an agreement that keeps the costs, but sends the people away. From their perspective, it’s free labor, they pay for it either way so put them to work! But no, I’m sure there are union restrictions about what you can put them to work doing.
Remember the Dot.com Bubble?
In 2000 we saw the Dot.com bubble. What was the fallout? Millions were lost on Wall Street. Companies by the bushel basket went out of business. Thousands were thrown out of work. How much did taxpayers cough up to bail them out? Nothing. The market dealt with it. The strong companies re-grouped, the weak fell by the wayside. John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems, changed his own salary to $1 per year until he righted his ship. Today Cisco has $26 billion in the bank and Chambers is still at the helm. Nice work, John. It wasn’t done with arrogance and going hat in hand to Washington looking for a hand out.
Deja Vu
In the 1970s and 1980s in the UK, British Leyland, maker of the Triumph, MG, Rover, Jaguar, Austin and five others, was in need of a bailout to keep going. The British government complied eventually pumping in $16.5 billion in taxpayer money to the company. It limped along for another few years and then went out of business. It sold its Jaguar and Land Rover brands to Ford, which then poured $10 billion into Jaguar. It recently sold both brands to Tata of India, getting back about half of what it paid for the brands.
Did the British economy go under? Is the British military without tanks? Let’s not forget that the Jeep was made by American Motors. Where is American Motors today? A company named AM General makes the military Hummer. Guess what the “AM” stands for? GM, Ford and Chrysler combined made about 17 million vehicles in 2007. Does anyone think this demand will vanish if GM, Ford and Chrysler vanish? Of course not. Either GM, Ford, and Chrysler will re-make themselves, new companies will emerge, or U.S. based foreign companies will grow to take up the slack. The jobs will move around. The demand is there, the supply will emerge to satisfy it.
The Way Out
The way out of this mess is to go Chapter 11, reorganize, renegotiate onerous labor contracts, sell off properties no longer needed but tied up in commitments to bonds that were sold to attract a factory, etc. The government should do their part and dump the CAFE standards. Americans will still want high mileage cars and companies will build them. It may not be GM, Ford and Chrysler who build them, but if they trim down, maybe they will. But they do make a profit on their premium models and light trucks. Let them.
But keep your hand out of my wallet.





