Conservatives, do not lose heart. Tea Party people, stand firm. Like many great turning points in history, they often involve an historic battle that is lost. The Alamo. Remember the Maine. Dunkirk. Pearl Harbor. 9/11. What they do instead is rally the troops, get them fired up and motivated.
The Battle
In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the aloofness of the professional pols came to a head. It was the epitome of a recent Rasmussen poll that said 74% of Republicans said their elected leaders were out of touch with the base. On the Democratic side, the opposite was the case were most Democrats felt their elected leaders held similar views to their own. So what happened in the special election in New York’s 23rd district?
Republican party bosses chose Dede Scozzafava to defend a seat that has been Republican since the Civil War. Ms. Scozzafava is pro-abortion, pro-”reform in workers ability to organize”, pro-gay marriage, pro-Obama stimulus package, and endorsed by the Working Families Party, an ACORN front group. That was more than conservatives could stand. Doug Hoffman threw his hat in the ring, conservatives from around the country rallied to him, and Scozzafava eventually dropped out of the race and threw her support behind…the Democrat!!
So the race was between a Democrat and a Conservative, with the Republican candidate a footnote. The Democrat prevailed by about 5% and picked up a seat for Nancy Pelosi.
The Talking Heads
The liberals started rubbing their hands and crowing over the Republican party self-destructing. I see it differently.
In a Gallup poll, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 20% described themselves as liberals. That leaves 40% in the middle. The prevailing wisdom among the Republican Party leadership is that we need to run “moderates” and have a big tent to win elections. I say, do the math.
If you need 50% to win the election, and many times you don’t, then run a conservative candidate. You will start off with the 40% that call themselves conservative, and then you only need to win 25% of the middle to put you over the top. (40% in the middle x 25% = 10%; 40% conservative base plus this 10% = 50%).
Liberals have the tougher job. Starting out with only a base of 20% self-described liberals, they need to win 3/4 of the middle to get to 50% and win. It’s even tougher for them because they typically have to go hard left to win the primary and then try to swim upstream to get back in the middle without anyone noticing.
Putting Elections on a Platter
So what has been the strategy of the Republican Party leadership? Run moderates, because “we can’t win elections with the conservative base alone.” That’s true but neither can the Democrats win with just their liberal base and as I just proved, theirs is the tougher job. But when you run moderates, here’s what happens. A good portion of the conservative base stays home, disgusted. So from starting with 40%, you maybe now have a 20% base. You just let the Democrats pull even. Now you have to win not 25% of the middle but half of the middle. Let’s say the middle is a continuum from almost conservative to almost liberal. If Republicans keep their base, then they can just go after the middle group that is “almost” conservative. If they alienate their base then they have to get every vote in the middle that is the least bit conservative and maybe some liberals. On the flip side, if they keep their base by running conservative candidates, that forces the Democrat to get all the liberals, all moderates, and some who lean conservative, to capture 3/4 of the middle. After going hard left to get nominated, that is an almost impossible task.
Don’t Let Obama Fool You
Obama’s election had an historical element to it that we are not likely to see again. He is an incredibly good speaker, that is, until you realize that is all he is. Put up a moderate like McCain, and it was no contest. The only time it became interesting was when McCain picked Palin, which got the base energized. But the McCain campaign completely mismanaged bringing Palin on board, and the moment was lost.
Remember the 23rd!
So, conservatives have to rally and the Republican leadership has to pay attention. As Margaret Thatcher used to say, “Don’t go wobbly.” Start putting conservatives on the field and turn the tide of the battle.
The next battle is Florida where Charlie Crist…better update his resume, there is a new kid in town, named Marco Rubio and he’s a conservative.



Queue Up for the Loyal Opposition
by Bill O'Connell on November 4, 2008
Apologies to Yogi Berra, but it appears that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States. He displayed extraordinary political skill on par with Bill Clinton. As commentator Juan Williams put it on Fox News, Obama was the stealth candidate. He spoke in platitudes about hope and change, but he was flexible on the details. In a period of just a few weeks his famous claim of a tax break for anyone making under $250,000, became $200,000 and through other allies it continued to decrease to $150,000 (Biden) and then $120,000 (New Mexico governor Bill Richardson).
Obama campaigned furiously against George W. Bush, despite Bush not being in the race. McCain was no match for him as far a political skill was concerned. McCain refused to mention Reverend Jeremiah Wright in the campaign, he failed to explain how his involvement during the bailout debate got the Republicans back in the game when Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid effectively shut them out of the discussions until McCain got involved. Where else did he fall short?
The Next Four Years
As the loyal opposition we have to be on guard and speak out against the radical positions that Obama has espoused, but are out of sync with the American people, only 27% of whom call themselves liberal. What to watch for:
This is an historic moment in American history with the election of the first African American as President of the United States. As the loyal opposition, it is our duty to make clear whenever he and his followers stray from the principles on which this country was founded, those of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. We must make sure we fight any challenges to the First Amendment and we must preserve our ability to raise our voices and speak our mind.
God Bless the United States of America