Fighting to Preserve Liberty in America
Photo by roberthufstutter
Throughout out the Republican campaign process, Herman Cain has been portrayed as an interesting candidate, but with no serious chance of winning the Republican nomination. What I found was the most curious logic was on the O’Reilly Factor the other night. Bill’s reasoning that Herman Cain won’t win the nomination was because the most important thing to Republicans was to unseat Obama and that independents won’t vote for Cain because he is too conservative.
“I always use the word extreme, that’s what the caucus instructed me to do the other week, extreme cuts and all these riders, and Boehner’s in a box but if he supports the Tea Party, there’s inevitably [be] a shutdown. – Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY)
In an article in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, Senator Marco Rubio said:
Every generation has had to confront and solve serious challenges and, because they did, each has left the next better off. Until now.
It brought to mind the movie Generation Zero, that chronicles the origins of the great financial meltdown that we have experienced. In that movie they point to one of the contributing factors the transition in power from those who lived through the Great Depression and World War II to the Baby Boomers, who knew little deprivation in their lives. Now as these boomers, of which I am one, took the reins of power, caution was thrown to the wind.
Comments submitted in response to a previous post, “The Progressive War on Federalism,” focused on the Electoral College and a movement called the National Popular Vote (http://www.nationalpopularvote.com) bill. Rather than argue against my point it only seemed to reinforce it. The objective of this movement, which before this commenter’s contribution I was unaware of, is to abolish, or should I say neuter, the Electoral College and replace it with the direct election of the president. This movement looks to further weaken the states and move us away from federalism and toward a strong monolithic central government. Here is my analysis.
As is the case every ten years we take a census of the population of the United States, as required by the Constitution. After the census is taken the seats in the House of Representatives are shuffled to accommodate for shifts in population between the states.
So what does this all mean? In a previous post focusing on the Senate we showed that currently twenty-one Democrats and two independents who caucus (meet and generally vote with) the Democrats will be facing election in 2012 compared to only ten Republicans. In the House, everyone is up for re-election every two years. So after picking up 60 seats, or thereabouts as some races still haven’t been decided, where do the two parties start off as a result of reapportionment? Although final numbers won’t be in until December, it doesn’t look good for the Democrats.
Conservatives, do not lose heart. Tea Party people, stand firm. Like many great turning points in history, they often involve an historic battle that is lost. The Alamo. Remember the Maine. Dunkirk. Pearl Harbor. 9/11. What they do instead is rally the troops, get them fired up and motivated.
The Battle
In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the aloofness of the professional pols came to a head. It was the epitome of a recent Rasmussen poll that said 74% of Republicans said their elected leaders were out of touch with the base. On the Democratic side, the opposite was the case were most Democrats felt their elected leaders held similar views to their own. So what happened in the special election in New York’s 23rd district?
Republican party bosses chose Dede Scozzafava to defend a seat that has been Republican since the Civil War. Ms. Scozzafava is pro-abortion, pro-”reform in workers ability to organize”, pro-gay marriage, pro-Obama stimulus package, and endorsed by the Working Families Party, an ACORN front group. That was more than conservatives could stand. Doug Hoffman threw his hat in the ring, conservatives from around the country rallied to him, and Scozzafava eventually dropped out of the race and threw her support behind…the Democrat!!
So the race was between a Democrat and a Conservative, with the Republican candidate a footnote. The Democrat prevailed by about 5% and picked up a seat for Nancy Pelosi.
The Talking Heads
The liberals started rubbing their hands and crowing over the Republican party self-destructing. I see it differently.
In a Gallup poll, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 20% described themselves as liberals. That leaves 40% in the middle. The prevailing wisdom among the Republican Party leadership is that we need to run “moderates” and have a big tent to win elections. I say, do the math.
If you need 50% to win the election, and many times you don’t, then run a conservative candidate. You will start off with the 40% that call themselves conservative, and then you only need to win 25% of the middle to put you over the top. (40% in the middle x 25% = 10%; 40% conservative base plus this 10% = 50%).
Liberals have the tougher job. Starting out with only a base of 20% self-described liberals, they need to win 3/4 of the middle to get to 50% and win. It’s even tougher for them because they typically have to go hard left to win the primary and then try to swim upstream to get back in the middle without anyone noticing.
Putting Elections on a Platter
So what has been the strategy of the Republican Party leadership? Run moderates, because “we can’t win elections with the conservative base alone.” That’s true but neither can the Democrats win with just their liberal base and as I just proved, theirs is the tougher job. But when you run moderates, here’s what happens. A good portion of the conservative base stays home, disgusted. So from starting with 40%, you maybe now have a 20% base. You just let the Democrats pull even. Now you have to win not 25% of the middle but half of the middle. Let’s say the middle is a continuum from almost conservative to almost liberal. If Republicans keep their base, then they can just go after the middle group that is “almost” conservative. If they alienate their base then they have to get every vote in the middle that is the least bit conservative and maybe some liberals. On the flip side, if they keep their base by running conservative candidates, that forces the Democrat to get all the liberals, all moderates, and some who lean conservative, to capture 3/4 of the middle. After going hard left to get nominated, that is an almost impossible task.
Don’t Let Obama Fool You
Obama’s election had an historical element to it that we are not likely to see again. He is an incredibly good speaker, that is, until you realize that is all he is. Put up a moderate like McCain, and it was no contest. The only time it became interesting was when McCain picked Palin, which got the base energized. But the McCain campaign completely mismanaged bringing Palin on board, and the moment was lost.
Remember the 23rd!
So, conservatives have to rally and the Republican leadership has to pay attention. As Margaret Thatcher used to say, “Don’t go wobbly.” Start putting conservatives on the field and turn the tide of the battle.
The next battle is Florida where Charlie Crist…better update his resume, there is a new kid in town, named Marco Rubio and he’s a conservative.
