This Sunday morning brought the news that Colin Powell had endorsed Barack Obama. This was deemed as anywhere from a major setback for the McCain campaign to the final nail in his political coffin. However, to most people paying attention to Powell’s career this is not really a surprise. Colin Powell’s is a great American story. Someone who rose through the ranks to the top of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He wasn’t a West Point graduate, but rather went to City College in New York and joined the Army Reserve Officers Training Corps. His service is worthy of our admiration and gratitude.
Politically, Colin Powell is not a conservative. He is an advocate of Affirmative Action and he is pro-abortion. He didn’t campaign for black conservative candidates like Michael Steele in Maryland or Lynn Swan in Pennsylvania. He didn’t speak out about the treatment of Clarence Thomas in his Supreme Court hearings and the way those hearings where conducted by Joe Biden. So his endorsement of Obama should neither be surprising or earth shattering.
In his Sunday interview he “expressed displeasure with the direction of the Republican Party.” This, according to the New York Times, was “another dispiriting setback to Republicans.” Really? When do Republicans win elections and when do they lose them?
When Republicans remain true to conservative principles they tend to win elections. When they move to the center to appeal to moderates they tend to lose. Why is that?
A Battleground poll taken this past August shows it quite clearly. When asked the question, “When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be…”
- Very Conservative
- Somewhat Conservative
- Moderate
- Somewhat Liberal
- Very Liberal
- Unsure or refused to answer
The poll results were:
- Very Conservative — 20%
- Somewhat Conservative — 40%
- Moderate — 2%
- Somewhat Liberal — 27%
- Very Liberal — 9%
- Unsure/Refuse to Answer — 3%
What is most interesting is that only 2% consider themselves to be moderate, and yet conservatives are being repeatedly counseled to reach out to moderates. Why put forth all that effort for 2% of the population? If you combine the first two categories, those who consider themselves to be conservative or very conservative, it totals 60% of the population. Republicans should be able to win elections all day long with those numbers.
The Battleground Poll is a well respected bipartisan poll jointly conducted by a Democratic polling group and a Republican polling group. What is even more interesting is that they include this question in every survey, and the results have been very consistent over time. In the thirteen Battleground polls taken between June 2002 and August 2008, those who consider themselves conservatives have ranged from a low of 58% to a high of 63%, pretty consistent indeed.
When Republicans stick to core conservative principles they generally win elections. When they took control of Congress for the first time in forty years it was because they ran on Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America. It advocated smaller government, personal responsibility, tort reform and term limits among other things. This resonated with people who are fed up with Washington and a government that grows without bound. When they got in power and started spending like liberals, they got tossed out on their butts, as well they should. If the choice in the voting booth is between a professional liberal (Democrats) and the amateur liberal (moderate Republicans) most folks are going to go with the pro.
Reagan, the truest conservative won the Presidency twice, and easily. George Bush senior won his first term and then raised taxes breaking his “Read My Lips” pledge. Out he went. Clinton won two terms and neither time garnered a majority of the popular vote. George W. Bush ran as a conservative and won two terms, but they were close races. Why? He talked about being a “compassionate conservative” which many took as a code word for being a moderate and not that great a difference from the Democrats.
The untold story is that a significant majority of Americans consider themselves conservative and the closer the candidate adheres to conservative principles (e.g., Reagan) the larger the margin of victory. The further they move a way, the closer the final tally.