What do you do when you can’t run on your record? If you watch the Democrats you will find out. The answer is to manufacture bogus issues out of thin air and try to anger and scare people into voting against dismal Democrat policies.
Republican candidate
Conservatives, do not lose heart. Tea Party people, stand firm. Like many great turning points in history, they often involve an historic battle that is lost. The Alamo. Remember the Maine. Dunkirk. Pearl Harbor. 9/11. What they do instead is rally the troops, get them fired up and motivated.
The Battle
In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the aloofness of the professional pols came to a head. It was the epitome of a recent Rasmussen poll that said 74% of Republicans said their elected leaders were out of touch with the base. On the Democratic side, the opposite was the case were most Democrats felt their elected leaders held similar views to their own. So what happened in the special election in New York’s 23rd district?
Republican party bosses chose Dede Scozzafava to defend a seat that has been Republican since the Civil War. Ms. Scozzafava is pro-abortion, pro-”reform in workers ability to organize”, pro-gay marriage, pro-Obama stimulus package, and endorsed by the Working Families Party, an ACORN front group. That was more than conservatives could stand. Doug Hoffman threw his hat in the ring, conservatives from around the country rallied to him, and Scozzafava eventually dropped out of the race and threw her support behind…the Democrat!!
So the race was between a Democrat and a Conservative, with the Republican candidate a footnote. The Democrat prevailed by about 5% and picked up a seat for Nancy Pelosi.
The Talking Heads
The liberals started rubbing their hands and crowing over the Republican party self-destructing. I see it differently.
In a Gallup poll, 40% of Americans considered themselves conservative, 20% described themselves as liberals. That leaves 40% in the middle. The prevailing wisdom among the Republican Party leadership is that we need to run “moderates” and have a big tent to win elections. I say, do the math.
If you need 50% to win the election, and many times you don’t, then run a conservative candidate. You will start off with the 40% that call themselves conservative, and then you only need to win 25% of the middle to put you over the top. (40% in the middle x 25% = 10%; 40% conservative base plus this 10% = 50%).
Liberals have the tougher job. Starting out with only a base of 20% self-described liberals, they need to win 3/4 of the middle to get to 50% and win. It’s even tougher for them because they typically have to go hard left to win the primary and then try to swim upstream to get back in the middle without anyone noticing.
Putting Elections on a Platter
So what has been the strategy of the Republican Party leadership? Run moderates, because “we can’t win elections with the conservative base alone.” That’s true but neither can the Democrats win with just their liberal base and as I just proved, theirs is the tougher job. But when you run moderates, here’s what happens. A good portion of the conservative base stays home, disgusted. So from starting with 40%, you maybe now have a 20% base. You just let the Democrats pull even. Now you have to win not 25% of the middle but half of the middle. Let’s say the middle is a continuum from almost conservative to almost liberal. If Republicans keep their base, then they can just go after the middle group that is “almost” conservative. If they alienate their base then they have to get every vote in the middle that is the least bit conservative and maybe some liberals. On the flip side, if they keep their base by running conservative candidates, that forces the Democrat to get all the liberals, all moderates, and some who lean conservative, to capture 3/4 of the middle. After going hard left to get nominated, that is an almost impossible task.
Don’t Let Obama Fool You
Obama’s election had an historical element to it that we are not likely to see again. He is an incredibly good speaker, that is, until you realize that is all he is. Put up a moderate like McCain, and it was no contest. The only time it became interesting was when McCain picked Palin, which got the base energized. But the McCain campaign completely mismanaged bringing Palin on board, and the moment was lost.
Remember the 23rd!
So, conservatives have to rally and the Republican leadership has to pay attention. As Margaret Thatcher used to say, “Don’t go wobbly.” Start putting conservatives on the field and turn the tide of the battle.
The next battle is Florida where Charlie Crist…better update his resume, there is a new kid in town, named Marco Rubio and he’s a conservative.
In his Sunday column Frank Rich described Republican candidate for New York’s 23rd Congressional District a “mainstream conservative by New York standards.” So what did Dede Scozzafava do after falling so far behind the Democratic and Conservative candidates that she decided to drop out? Well, naturally, she endorsed the Democrat! Why would a conservative endorse the Conservative, rather than the Democrat? Because, perhaps, she was a RINO? That is, a Republican In Name Only.
Party On
What frightens the statists more than anything else is that the Tea Party people know how to walk and chew gum at the same time. They know that protesting is one thing, but it doesn’t matter if it doesn’t bring about results. What was demonstrated in New York’s 23rd District is that just like the Minutemen back in Revolutionary times, conservatives could rally, join the fight, and win. The lock the left had on the media is gone. The statists no longer control the information game, putting their spin on the news. If this were 20 years ago, Doug Hoffman the Conservative candidate in the race, would have been, at best, a footnote in history. His story would not have gotten off the local newspapers in that rural part of New York State. In today’s world, he quickly got on television, talk radio, and the blogs, got his message out and the rest is history.
What’s the Lesson?
Despite Frank Rich’s hand wringing and Dede Scozzafava’s backing the Democratic candidate, how has the race changed? From neck and neck between the Conservative Hoffman and the Democrat Owens, recent polls show Hoffman surging into the lead with one poll showing a 5% lead and another showing a 17% lead. The lesson is that if you give Republicans good conservative candidates, they will vote for them. If you instead go for weak, moderates, then the Republican base stays home, and the independents choose between the professional statist (Democrat) and the amateur statist (moderate Republican) and as I like to say…in a contest like that why wouldn’t you pick the pro over the amateur?
